Fading Glory: can Southern Africa's liberation m...

Fading Glory: can Southern Africa's liberation movements regain their footing?

Oscar J Jeke

Decades ago, liberation movements swept across Southern Africa, dismantling colonial rule and igniting hope for a brighter future. But time, it seems, has taken its toll. Once dominant forces, these parties are facing a growing challenge from a resurgent opposition.

From ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe to SWAPO in Namibia, these liberation movements led their nations to hard-won independence.

They rode a wave of popular support, fueled by the desire for self-governance and freedom from white minority rule. Strong political structures and the rallying cry of liberation served them well (e.g., ZANU PF in Zimbabwe garnering over 57 seats in the first post-independence election in 1980).

However, recent years have painted a different picture. Support for these once-unshakeable parties has dwindled. The euphoria of independence has faded, replaced by a yearning for change. The rise of strong opposition parties, like the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in Zimbabwe founded in 1999, is a testament to this shift.

The recent failure of South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) to secure a parliamentary majority in the latest election stands as a stark reminder of this vulnerability.

The party that brought Nelson Mandela to power now struggles to maintain its grip. Analysts point to a disconnect from its founding principles, a lack of enthusiasm from its base that had rallied behind the party in its formative years (e.g., garnering over 62.65% of the vote in the 1994 election), and the emergence of charismatic opposition leaders like Julius Malema who formed his own party.

Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF offers another example. The rise of the MDC chipped away at its dominance. While Robert Mugabe initially managed to weather the storm, with ZANU-PF even gaining over 66% of the vote in 2013 leveraging on a unity government, his successors have faced a more formidable challenge from the likes of Nelson Chamisa's MDC Alliance and Citizens’ Coalition for Change.

Recent elections have seen ZANU-PF clinging to power by a thread, with results attributed to factors like factionalism within the party and a decline in Mugabe's charisma after his long rule.

Economic hardship across the region has provided fertile ground for opposition parties. The ANC, ZANU-PF, and others have been blamed for failing to deliver on promises of prosperity.

This economic discontent fuels a powerful narrative of change, readily adopted by opposition forces.

The rise of charismatic opposition leaders like Nelson Chamisa in Zimbabwe adds another layer of complexity. However, true change requires more than just personalities.

Both liberation movements and opposition parties must address the core issues facing their nations – economic stagnation, corruption, and a disconnect with the people they serve.

The future of Southern Africa's liberation movements remains uncertain. Can they adapt, reconnect with their base, and offer solutions to the challenges plaguing their nations? Or will they become a relic of the past, overtaken by a new generation of political forces? Namibia's SWAPO, for instance, which secured 57.32% of the vote in its first UN-monitored election in 1989, saw a slight decline to 56.25% in 2019, despite incumbent president Hage Geingob being at the helm. Only time will tell if these liberation movements can recapture their former glory.