What’s happening
In a recent piece, urban strategist Wellington Muzengeza argues that Africa’s cities are growing at “tidal-wave” speed — swelling by the millions, with capitals like Nairobi, Kinshasa, Accra, Kigali and Cairo morphing into vast metropolises almost overnight.
But this surge comes with a harsh question: can our cities sustain such expansion given weak economies, fragile governance and shallow fiscal capacity?
Asia’s path — and why it doesn’t match Africa’s
Muzengeza warns against using Asian urban centres (think: Singapore, Seoul, Dubai, Shanghai) as blueprints. These places urbanised after building industrial economies, generating sufficient wealth to fund infrastructure, housing, sanitation, transport and more.
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In Africa, the order is inverted: rapid urbanisation comes first — often without solid industrial base, robust taxation, or matured governance needed to sustain it. That mismatch risks turning cities into congested megaslums rather than engines of progress.
Real-world cautionary tales
- Nairobi has ballooned from a small colonial town of 290,000 in 1960 to a metropolis exceeding five million — yet over 60 % of residents live in informal settlements, and infrastructure lags far behind demographic growth.
- Accra shows how rapid population growth without controlled density or proper transit planning can lead to urban sprawl, inefficient land use and rising inequality.
- Kigali may represent a different path — with strong planning discipline, zoning laws, and efforts at sustainable urban design — but it still lacks the industrial wealth that powered Asia’s urban boom.
The choice facing African cities
Muzengeza argues that African governments and cities must decide: either
- Repeat Asia’s model of building sleek skylines and megaprojects — but then risk collapsing under the weight of unsustainable fiscal and institutional burdens. Or
- Forge a new route: one driven by strategic urban planning, fiscal innovation (e.g. public-private partnerships, domestic revenue mobilisation), and modest, functional infrastructure, not vanity.
He calls for a continental urban strategy that embraces realistic financing, disciplined spatial planning, and cooperation between cities — so that African urbanisation becomes strength, not liability.
Read the full article here:
https://muzengeza-nfulk.wordpress.com/2025/11/28/can-african-cities-afford-the-magnitude-of-asian-urbanisation/
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