Zimbabwe is importing about US$3 billion worth of manufactured products that local industry has the capacity to produce, exposing a sizeable domestic market that the Government now wants local manufacturers to capture as the country pushes deeper into industrialisation.

The figure puts import substitution at the centre of Zimbabwe’s manufacturing drive, with Industry and Commerce Minister Mangaliso Ndlovu arguing that money currently leaving the country for goods that can be made locally represents an opportunity for investment, production and employment.

“Why would we spend so much money outside the country, exporting jobs, exporting technologies and opportunities in areas where we have the capacity to produce locally?” Ndlovu said recently. “For me, this is a huge opportunity because 85 percent is going somewhere. It’s creating employment opportunities elsewhere.”

The minister’s remarks came as he outlined Zimbabwe’s push at the TNF Global Summit in Victoria Falls to move away from exporting raw materials towards local processing, refining, manufacturing and higher-value production. The scale of the import opportunity is significant because the country is not starting from an empty industrial base.

A Government-commissioned State of Industry and 2027 Industrialisation Outlook report found that Zimbabwe imports roughly US$3 billion annually in manufactured products that could be produced domestically. The study identified opportunities in pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, iron and steel, tissue paper and other products, while estimating that targeted domestic manufacturing could reduce the import bill by at least US$2.5 billion a year.

The gap is particularly striking in the mining industry, where Ndlovu previously pointed out that only about 12 percent of the US$3.4 billion worth of goods procured annually by the mining sector are manufactured locally. That leaves a large share of mining-related expenditure going to foreign suppliers, even though some of the required products and services could potentially be developed within Zimbabwe.

There are signs, however, that domestic industry is beginning to move towards capturing more value. Manufacturing contributed 16.2 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, while capacity utilisation rose to 61.2 percent, according to figures presented by the ministry.

Manufactured exports have also increased, rising from US$437.6 million in 2024 to approximately US$584.8 million in 2025. The increase suggests that the industrial base is not only recovering capacity for the domestic market but is beginning to develop greater export potential.

The steel industry illustrates the shift towards higher-value production. Zimbabwe exported 146,314 tonnes of steel worth US$92.1 million in 2025, while value-added steel exports reached US$68.22 million in the first quarter of 2026, compared with US$19.25 million during the same period in 2025.

That movement up the value chain is central to the Government’s broader industrialisation strategy. Rather than simply replacing imported finished goods, the policy direction seeks to increase the amount of processing and manufacturing undertaken inside Zimbabwe before products reach domestic or international markets.

Agriculture provides another potential link. The ministry says the sector supplies approximately 60 percent of the raw materials used by manufacturing, creating scope for stronger connections between farmers, processors and factories.

Those linkages could support expansion in food processing, packaging, textiles, leather, beverages and other agro-industrial activities, allowing more agricultural output to be converted into manufactured products rather than being sold with limited processing.

The Government’s Local Content Strategy for 2026–2035 is intended to reinforce that transition by increasing local input utilisation from about 30 percent to 75 percent by 2035, with measures covering local procurement, supplier development, technology transfer, beneficiation, industrial financing and industrial parks.

The strategy also reflects a recognition that import substitution cannot depend solely on consumers choosing local products. The ministry’s own strategy states that the Government’s role is to create an enabling environment, while the private sector must build factories and compete for markets.

That distinction is important because the US$3 billion opportunity does not automatically translate into US$3 billion of new domestic production. Local manufacturers still have to overcome the cost, quality, technology, finance, energy and infrastructure constraints that can make imported products more competitive.

Capacity utilisation of 61.2 percent also suggests that Zimbabwe’s existing factories have room to expand output before the country necessarily needs to build an entirely new industrial base. Unlocking that unused capacity could become an important part of the import-substitution drive.

At the same time, the Government wants the manufacturing push to extend beyond Zimbabwe’s borders. The TNF Global Summit is being held against a broader industrialisation agenda focused on investment, beneficiation, employment and integration into regional value chains.

The economic logic behind the Government’s approach is to replace imports where Zimbabwe already has the capability to produce competitively, while developing industries capable of exporting higher-value goods into African and international markets.