Visual Capitalist- Global government debt is projected to hit $97.1 trillion this year, a 40% increase since 2019.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced sweeping financial measures to support the job market and prevent a wave of bankruptcies. However, this has exposed vulnerabilities as higher interest rates are amplifying borrowing costs.
This graphic shows global debt by country in 2023, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Debt by Country in 2023
With $33.2 trillion in government debt, the U.S. makes up over a third of the world total.
Given the increasing debt load, the cost of servicing this debt now accounts for 20% of government spending. It is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2028, surpassing the total spent on defense.
The world’s third-biggest economy, Japan, has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios, at 255%. Over the last two decades, its national debt has far exceeded 100% of its GDP, driven by an aging population and social security expenses.
In 2023, Egypt faces steep borrowing costs, with 40% of revenues going towards debt repayments. It has the highest debt on the continent.
Like Egypt, several emerging economies are facing strain. Lebanon has been in default since 2020, and Ghana defaulted on the majority of its external debt—debt owed to foreign lenders—in 2022 amid a deepening economic crisis.
Global Debt: A Regional Perspective
How does debt compare on a regional level in 2023?
We can see that North America has both the highest debt and debt to GDP compared to other regions. Just as U.S. debt has ballooned, so has Canada’s—ranking as the 10th-highest globally in government debt outstanding.
Across Asia and the Pacific, debt levels hover close to North America.
At 3.3% of the global total, South America has $3.2 trillion in debt. As inflation has trended downwards, a handful of governments have already begun cutting interest rates. Overall, public debt levels are projected to stay elevated across the region.
Debt levels have also risen rapidly in Africa, with an average 40% of public debt held in foreign currencies—leaving it exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. Another challenge is that interest rates are also higher across the region compared to advanced economies, increasing debt-servicing costs.
By 2028, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP, hitting levels only seen during the pandemic.
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Ranking the Credit Ratings of Major Economies
Country credit ratings assess the likelihood that a country will default on its debts, and are determined by international rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Moody’s, and Fitch Ratings.
Generally speaking, a higher rating results in lower borrowing costs for the country, while lower ratings can increase costs or even limit access to capital.
This graphic from The Hinrich Foundation shows the credit worthiness of 28 major economies, using an index of ratings from the three agencies mentioned above (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch).
The analysis comes from the 2023 Sustainable Trade Index (STI), which the Hinrich Foundation produced in collaboration with the IMD World Competitiveness Center.
Data Overview
To produce the STI’s credit rating metric, ratings from S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch were converted to a numerical score and averaged for each economy, with a range of 0-60 (60 being the highest). All data are as of 2022.
Countries with advanced economies and stable political structures typically receive the highest credit ratings, but this is always subject to change. For example, in August 2023, Fitch Ratings announced it had downgraded the U.S. to an AA+ from AAA (the highest possible).
From Fitch’s press release:
The rating downgrade of the U.S. reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.
Speaking of downgrades, one country that has received numerous in recent years is Russia, due to sanctions it faces as a result of the prolonged invasion of Ukraine. For example, S&P reduced Russia’s sovereign credit rating to a CCC-, which implies a default is imminent in the near future.
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