Zimbabwe closed the final quarter of 2025 with a paradox that is reshaping how its investment performance should be read: more investors are coming in, but they are committing less capital per project.

According to the Zimbabwe Investment and Development Agency, the country issued 235 new investment licences in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 17.5% increase from the same period in 2024. Yet total proposed investment dropped sharply to US$1.18 billion from US$4.59 billion a year earlier, reflecting a 74% decline in headline value.

ZIDA chief executive Tafadzwa Chinamo said the contrast was not a retreat, but a shift in the composition of investment.

“While proposed investment values declined, this largely reflected the absence of large capital-intensive projects that characterised the previous period,” Chinamo said. “The 2025 approvals instead reflect a more diversified portfolio of medium-scale investments, signalling sustained investor interest despite lower aggregate capital commitments.”

The data supports that interpretation. Instead of a handful of mega-deals inflating figures, the quarter saw a broader spread of licences across renewable energy, ICT, agriculture and manufacturing — sectors central to Zimbabwe’s industrialisation, value-addition and energy transition objectives.

Mining remained the sector with the highest projected investment value and the largest number of licences issued, underlining its continued dominance. Energy and manufacturing followed closely, reflecting sustained interest in productive sectors despite lingering macroeconomic risks.

Actual monitored inflows during the quarter totalled US$1.547 billion, representing a 31% realisation rate against monitored project projections and just 4% progress against total projected investment from all licensed projects since January 2022. While the realisation rate remains modest, it suggests incremental movement from licensing to execution.

Regionally, Harare accounted for the bulk of licensed investment value at US$439.9 million across 103 licences, reinforcing its position as the primary investment hub. The Midlands followed with US$262.18 million across 40 licences, while Mashonaland West recorded US$125.68 million from 27 licences, driven largely by mining and agro-linked projects.

ZIDA said the rising number of licences reflects growing investor engagement, with the agency interacting with 166 potential investors during the quarter alone.

“Committed interest was strongest in renewable energy, ICT, agriculture and manufacturing,” Chinamo said, noting that investor engagements increasingly focused on project readiness, regulatory clarity and bankability rather than speculative commitments.

This shift mirrors feedback from platforms such as the Africa Investment Forum (AIF) Market Days, where Zimbabwe benchmarked its projects against international standards.

“At AIF, investors placed strong emphasis on project readiness, robust PPP frameworks and regulatory certainty,” ZIDA noted, adding that the engagements generated “actionable feedback to improve project structuring, feasibility and governance”.

For policymakers, the Q4 numbers suggest Zimbabwe’s investment environment is evolving away from headline-driven narratives towards a slower, more distributed model of capital inflows. The challenge now lies in execution.

As Chinamo put it: “Our focus as we move into 2026 will be on strengthening business readiness, improving the investment climate and accelerating whole-of-government digital transformation.”