Zim Now Analysis Desk
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote met President Mnangagwa and “signed an investment agreement” for possible ventures in a pipeline, power generation, and cement with a US $1 billion figure being thrown around.
Government spokesperson George Charamba clarified that Dangote is in the country “to scout for opportunities.” Translation: there is no practical deal on the table yet.
What Was Actually Signed?
| Year | Instrument | Description | Real‑World Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 (Mugabe era) | MoUs / Intent Letters | Dangote explored cement, power, and coal ventures. | Nothing materialised. |
| 2025 (Mnangagwa era) | “Investment Agreement” (likely MoU) | Framework to explore projects in pipeline, power, cement. | Still exploratory — no licences, tariffs or financing yet. |
Plain English: This is a handshake plus photo ops and a paper saying the two parties want to work together. It is not an engineering contract, not a signed Power Purchase Agreement, and not proof of a billion dollars landing tomorrow, or ever.
It is important to note that the “US $1 billion” refers to the potential value across future projects, not cash wired to Zimbabwe. Practicalities that include but are not limited to feasibility studies, regulatory approvals, and financing close can take months, or even years.
This is not the first time Dangote has come to Zimbabwe. In 2015, again with the same facilitator, Josey Mahachi, excitement reached fever pitch as Dangote was pitched as the solution to all of Zimbabwe’s woes.
Why the 2015 Attempt Collapsed
| Problem | What Went Wrong Then | Why It Still Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tariffs | Zimbabwe refused USD‑denominated, cost‑reflective power tariffs. | Power projects remain unbankable without this. |
| Repatriation | Investors wanted guarantees to move profits. | Same issue under current FX regime. |
| Red Tape | Permits, land, and approvals moved slowly; alleged “shakedowns.” | Bureaucratic friction, policy inconsistency and outright illegal manoeuvres by state agencies still a risk. |
| Export Rights | Dispute over coal exports to Zambia plant. | Resource‑control sensitivities persist. Related Stories
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| Corruption | Allegations of institutionalised bribe demand mechanisms surfaced. | In Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Zimbabwe has worsened, slipping from a score of 21 and rank 150 out of 168 countries in 2015 to a score of 20 and rank 158 out of 180 countries in 2024, placing it among the world’s most corruption-plagued nations. |
Until these system issues are fixed and uniformity is guaranteed for all investors the repeat risk is high.
2015 vs 2025 — The Snapshot
| Topic | 2015 (Mugabe) | 2025 (Mnangagwa) |
|---|---|---|
| Public Messaging | “Mega cement & power projects.” | “$1 bn pipeline, power, cement investment.” |
| Legal Status | LoIs and MoUs, non‑binding. | Broad “agreement” still exploratory. |
| Outcome | Zero execution. | We all watch this space |
Red Flags vs Green Lights
| ⚠️ Red Flags | ✅ Green Lights |
|---|---|
| Only speeches & photo‑ops | Gazetted licences or SI approvals |
| Contradictory statements (“signed” vs “scouting”) | Named EPCs and financiers |
| Vague timelines (“soon”) | Timelines in writing |
| Silence from regulators | Site mobilisation photos with dated documentation |
The Bottom Line
Facilitator Josey Mahachi, who fronted Dangote’s 2015 visit, is again visible in 2025 coverage. But real progress will depend on gatekeepers such as ZERA, Mines, EMA, RBZ/Finance, Transport, and Local Government — not PR handlers.
As at today, Zimbabwe and Dangote have announced a broad framework to explore projects worth up to US $1 billion. Government communications still describe the visit as scouting, which means we are pre‑contract. Until tariffs, licences, and financing are signed and gazetted, call it potential, not production.
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